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Talented Blonde’s Favorite Mall Rat Picks for May Comps

crocs 2007

Ok- same store sales are looming. Talented Blonde took a break from the sun this weekend (ok, ok, I know its bad for you, but I just look better with a tan!) and made a trip to the Mall. Now, mind you, Talented Blonde has warned you that May comps will be devastating. Weather; no clear fashion trend; ripping gas prices, all these will add up to mixed results at best. Now, for the winners and losers-here are some names I’m obsessed with, and a few who simply need to BEAT IT!

I’m Obsessed!
J Crew (JCG)
Guess? (GES)
Crocs (CROX)
Nordstrom (JWN)
Zumiez (ZUMZ)

Beat it!
Gap (GPS)
Chico’s (CHS)
Delia’s (DLIA)
Hot Topic (HOTT)
Bebe (bebe)

JCG: We promise we won’t laugh at your headbands. This company has tapped in to the Adult Prep Lifestyle—and their kids to boot! Also, extremely adept at identifying profitable new market segments and then executing on them. Crewcuts, Bridal, Dresses, JCrew at the Beach. This company knows their customer, seeks them out, and delivers.

GES: Ok—they may be crazy Frenchmen, but man, can they dress teen girls. Guess consistently delivers body-conscious fashion that is sexy, but never raunchy. (Hard to find in the Mall these days ladies-am I right?) In addition to brilliantly executing on all cylinders (fashion, margin expansion, inventory flow, etc.) Guess is brilliant about managing their European business. They leave them alone! The European design team does their thing, for their customer and the results speak for themselves. Bravo!

CROX-Ah yes . . .the stock everyone loves to hate. Ok, I’ll admit it. They’re hideous. I have made fun of these shoes since the day they came out. Boy was I wrong. At approx. $30 bucks a pair, I bought three, just to feel like I wasn’t robbing the joint. I haven’t paid less than a hundo for a pair of shoes in like . . .forever! Moreover they are comfortable! OMG I am OBSESSED! Kids love them because they can take them on and off at will by themselves! Parents love them: no Velcro, no laces, and no buckles! Fat people love them. Gardeners love them. Nurses Love them. Chefs love them. Ok—so they’re made from the dregs of Petroleum sludge. . . who CARES? EVERYONE LOVES THE CROCS! This is where I find this stock unique-they created a niche market for themselves: a multipurpose shoe that multitudes of demographics NEED to HAVE. And that is the key people—something I need in my closet that I don’t already HAVE. And—to make the Crocs people even MORE brilliant . . .they bought this crazy little company called Jibbitz. Jibbitz are little charms that you can stick into the holes in your Crocs and . . . personalize them. Think about it as a charm bracelet for your shoes. FANCY! At $2.50 a pop—parents are handing over their wallets. Brilliant.

JWN: Come on . . .if you want to play consumer luxury at the Mall, look no further than Nordi’s. Solid management, superbly edited product mix, and one of the last bastions of customer service. We likey. If I need to explain further, this is the wrong blog for you.

ZUMZ: Although some might say that the surf lifestyle has become oversaturated, one can’t help but notice that Zumiez is one of the few differentiated concepts in the Mall today. Part destination-like the random TV room in your basement, complete with sketch couch-and part boarder/skate rat shop. Mix in some graphic T’s and board shorts, footwear and shades and poof! You’ve got a fresh new concept on your hands! Talented Blonde thinks Zumiez is interesting in that they have managed to keep the surfer “street cred” and authenticity, even in a sea of Mall mediocrity. A VERY slippery slope . . .but somehow they pull it off.
I’ll rant on the losers shortly . . .

Filed by admin at June 5th, 2007 under teen retail, love it, fashion

[…] experience retail analyst blogging provides for some good reading. Today she shares her thoughts on May store comp numbers, which are due to be released later this week, and her projected winners and […]

Pingback by Express Lane for 6/5/2007 | noturnonred.org - thoughts on the retail industry, visual merchandising, customer service, and good design — June 5, 2007 @ 8:47 pm

Crocs fan from before it became Crocs (Rebonds)… It was a small
enterprise in Quebec city run by probably the only Englishman in the
region. I had found the shoes in a small family run dept. store in
Ontario and after wearing them for 4 months I couldn’t take them off
my feet - PS at the time they retailed @ 12.99$ Can. I called the
company and started importing them into France. I also visited the
company prior to the time it was sold to Crocs. There I met the girl
who elaborated the recipe and even have a toilet seat made of the same
material (yes, a toilet seat designed for geriatric patients whose
bones have become too brittle) and the mad Englishman, Andrew who is
the genius behind these little wonders was busily trying to adapt the
material for other uses (car interiors for example but problems
concerning the extreme heat through the windshield rendered the
material too soft….) I was wondering what your take is on EDA who is
buying American Apparel since it is on your “beat” - my inkling is
that this may be a good investment still under the radar

Comment by topobox — June 21, 2007 @ 1:09 am

Hi, i watched the Street.com and discovered you
a few days ago. I wonder would u give a little
detail as to why you feel CROCS is still a
appealing long even though the good news on the earnings
has been circulating for a month, and the shares
have risen from $28-ish to $47-ish in past 30 days?
are we not chasing the story at this point? what is
your goal for CROX next 12 months? I listened
to crocs earnings confrence call for May,
and they said they shipped 8.6 million pairs of
shoes. With the stock up 60% i assume you believe they
will be selling much more then 10 million pairs per
quarter to justify chasing? Its unbelievable these
shoes sold for $12.99 Canadian per pair before
the Colorado players took over. TIA Boris

Comment by borisbmx — June 23, 2007 @ 7:28 am

If CHIPOTLES, CMG & CMG.B , is a retail concept that qualifies for analysis, would you post thoughts on the company. they have some major factors and qualities that are creating a lot of buzz. long term thoughts?

Comment by borisbmx — June 28, 2007 @ 8:12 am

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